RERC's Reports on Las Vegas Apartment Sector

"Many respondents to RERC's third quarter 2007 institutional investment survey noted that the apartment sector continue to represent the best commercial investment opportunity during the next year, as demand is expected to remain strong due to the wave of delinquencies and defaults in the subprime residential market. However, some respondents see the apartment sector as less attractive due to the low capitalization rate and the likelihood that slow job growth will hurt demand."

RERC's required going in capitalization rate for Las Vegas apartments is 6.0% as of 3Q2007. The terminal (exit) capitalization rate is 6.8%. The required pre-tax yield rate for apartment properties for third quarter 2007 was 8.5%, a 20 percent increase from second quarter.

Nevada's Unemployment Rate Hits 5.4%

According to the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation, Nevada’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was at 5.4% in November. The unadjusted rate for the Las Vegas area was 5.3%. The national rate remained unchanged at 4.7% in November, while California’s rate stayed at 5.6% in October (both rates seasonally adjusted). SurePayroll reported a 17% increase in small-business paychecks in Nevada during 2007. Nevada was the only state to have double-digit growth. The average salary in the state for workers at companies with 100 or fewer employees increased to $33,395, which is above the national average of $32,609.

Nevada Regains Title - Fastest-Growing State

Nearly 6,300 people moved to Clark County in December, for a total of just under 75,000 in 2007. The top feeder state, per the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, was California, with approximately one out of three new movers coming from our neighbor to the west. The state of Nevada has regained its title of the fastest-growing state in the nation. During the year ending July 1st, Nevada’s population increased 2.9% to more than 2.56 million. Census Bureau estimates list Arizona as the second-fastest growing state, after bumping Nevada off the top spot last year. Nevada has held the title of the fastest-growing state for 20 of the past 21 years.

Could Immigration Trends Hurt Las Vegas Apartments?

During a recent market study I noticed an alarming new trend. A trend that was confirmed by a recent phone conversation I had with a client, a substantial apartment owner here in Las Vegas and Phoenix. The trend of a slowing economy coupled by new immigration laws that are beginning spreading throughout the southwestern U.S., (i.e. Arizona & Texas) has suddenly caused properties with Hispanic demographics to increase in vacancies.This dilemma was brought further to light recently with the decision from Framers Branch, a suburb of Dallas Texas in their recent Ordinance 2952. Farmers Branch City Council unanimously approved the ordinance which would require all renters to pay $5 fee and claim US citizenship or legal immigration status to obtain an occupancy license from the city.

This new ordinance will bar illegal immigrants from renting homes and apartments in Farmer Branch. Key provisions:

*Prospective tenants would have to apply for an occupancy license.
*The application form will ask whether the person is in the U.S. legally.
*Anyone who completes the form and pays $5 will get a license and be allowed to move in.
*The city will verify noncitizens’ legal status through a federal database.
*Anyone identified as being in the U.S. illegally will get 60 days to prove otherwise.Violators – tenants or landlords – will face fines of $500 a day.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/012308dnmetfbrentals.2c1fcca.html

The State of Arizona as well, has a new law that went into effect January 1st, with strong penalties for employers hiring workers without legal status. Today, Arizona Employers hiring these workers could suffer a suspension of their business license for 10-days on the first offense plus fines; revocation of their business license on the second occurrence. Many hardworking Latino workers have begun leaving the Sun Devil State in the past few weeks, seeking employment elsewhere.

There are no such laws that I'm aware of in Las Vegas....Yet...but the word on the street is many employers are cracking-down on documentation for employment. When combining the slow-down in local housing construction where a great many Latino workers where employed and this budding trend against immigration. It is easy to build a hypothesis for higher vacancies going forward for Class - B/C apartments in Las Vegas. In today's apartment investment environment, investors demand purchasing buildings on actual operating income and expenses. Gone are the days of acquisitions based upon Pro Forma (a method of betting on the future) and higher vacancies equate to higher risks. 2008 could experience a widening spread in capitalization rates between Class - B/C apartments and their Class - A counterparts.

As reported by the RERC/CCIM report, surveyed institutional investors responses found the required going in capitalization rate for Las Vegas apartments is 6.0% as of 3Q2007. The terminal (exit) capitalization rate is 6.8%. The required pre-tax yield for Las Vegas apartment properties is 8.5%, a 20 percent increase from 2Q2007. I would suspect in 2008 Class – B/C properties should see an increase in spread of 130 basis points beyond a typical Class – A property. That would equate to approximately 7.3% capitalization rates for 2008 transactions. Guess what?...we’re already there and beyond!

Federal Reserve Emergency Rate Cut .75%

A sign that the Federal Reserve recognizes that the US economy is in a severe down turn. An inter meeting rate cut of 75 basis was made this morning after Asian and European markets sold off on Monday. The Fed has been viewed as being behind the curve in addressing the serious banking crisis and credit squeeze that has swept the US financial Markets.

Other news...Bank Issuer MBIA raised capital last week to avoid a downgrading by rating agencies and is still on the ropes this week. Should insurers for banks become insolvent, it will make life difficult for banks as their balance sheets are eroding due to the inability to value CDOs and other derivatives of the past financial engineering methods.

Generation "Y" in Las Vegas

A demographic of 75 million strong, generation Y - The population group born in the late 1980's through the 1990s - has the numbers to affect the housing market as profoundly as the baby boomer's did after World War II. This gives Multifamily Investors and Developers opportunities in Urban In-Fill locations where this demographic desires to live. In Southern Nevada, in-fill locations close to the Strip, Downtown Las Vegas and Downtown Henderson are such locations. Converting Older Class - C apartment sites to young hip attractions in the not-so-distant future will be the play. Here's what you should be looking for in your site selection:

1. Locations that fulfills their need for instant access and convenience to work and entertainment. Generation-Y will not want big houses on big lots, isolated from everything. They will want to be where the action is...think urban locations with bright lights, night-life and walkable locations.


2. Look for quirky, unique, and different designs...why not convert an old commercial building into housing such as a convenience-stores, or a well located 2-story office buildings/warehouses. How about a functional obsolete strip center close to the Las Vegas Strip. Turning these types of properties into urban town homes could be a home-run.


3. Create distinct architecture, bold colors, flexible floor space, and ample amenities tailored to their interest and tastes, (such as fitness centers, wireless internet connections, and gathering courtyards).

You should also be aware that changes in household formations are forcing developers and investors to think outside the box to attract renters and buyers. In the past, household formations on average were much larger requiring larger square footages per unit for housing families. Today, the average household is less that 2.5 persons per HH and they are forming much slower during the recession. I think this is the result of gender and practical economics.

Women today are more likely to be singles and are graduating from college at a faster rate than their men counterparts. Design with this fact in mind. That's because women will likely delay marriage to pursue their careers, and their housing choices will be far different from those made by their baby boomer mothers, with their likely favorite being close-in multifamily rental or for-sale units in mixed-use communities that emphasize communal space and social interaction.

The Good Old Days